Engineering and quantitative research for prediction-market microstructure.
QuantArm is the open-source engineering arm of ForesightFlow. We build software, data infrastructure, and analytical tools for prediction markets and the perpetual-futures contracts now arriving on Kalshi and Polymarket.
What we focus on
Three threads of work, one research program.
MICROSTRUCTURE
Prediction-market microstructure
Order-book dynamics, informed flow detection, signal credibility, calibration of public probability estimates.
PERPETUALS
The April 2026 inflection
Kalshi and Polymarket are bringing leveraged, never-expiring contracts to prediction-market venues. We build software to study and engage with this new surface.
OPEN INFRASTRUCTURE
Built openly, contributed back
We build on NautilusTrader and pmxt and contribute upstream. Selected components of our work are open-source.
Open source
The repositories we maintain.
| Repository | Description | License |
|---|---|---|
| nautilus-extensions★ flagship | NautilusTrader adapters for prediction markets and perpetual futures: Polymarket, Kalshi, Polymarket Perps, Kalshi Perps, Limitless. | Apache-2.0 |
| data-connectors | Python connectors for prediction-market data: Goldsky historical fetcher, Kalshi archive client, pmxt wrappers. | MIT |
| factors | Open-core factor library for prediction-market microstructure: ILS, SCI, funding-rate dynamics. | CC-BY-4.0 |
| backtest | Backtest harness on top of NautilusTrader. Reproducibility infrastructure, attribution reports. | MIT |
| strategy-framework | Interface contract for QuantArm strategies. Plug-in shape for researchers. | MIT |
| agents-engine | LangGraph multi-agent orchestration for catalyst extraction, news interpretation, market discovery. | Apache-2.0 |
All repositories are works in progress. Star them on GitHub to follow updates.
Research
Methods and findings, published openly.
Research output sits with our parent organization, ForesightFlow. We publish papers on prediction-market microstructure and market design, run the Foresight Arena AI-forecasting benchmark, and release datasets used by researchers and engineers working on the same problems.
About
A small group, with a long horizon.
QuantArm is a small group with deep focus. Our backgrounds combine prediction-market microstructure research, AI-forecasting evaluation, and large-scale data engineering on blockchain analytics. The work that defines us so far: nine peer-reviewable research papers on prediction markets in twelve months, the Foresight Arena on-chain forecasting benchmark, open datasets used by other research teams, and the open-source infrastructure linked above. QuantArm is operated by Devnull FZCO (Dubai, UAE).